JVM's Blog: 10 Reasons Why The Economy Will Crash; 2007 vs. 2024? 2024 Is WORSE; Rates Hold

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There is no way we’re going to avoid a bad recession; things are worse than we’re being led to believe; and this time is not different

10 Reasons Why The Economy Will Crash; 2007 vs. 2024? 2024 Is WORSE

In the late 1990s, I helped a young couple buy a home in San Ramon, CA for $330,000.

By 2007, that couple owed over $800,000 against that same house – and THAT is why we did not see a recession until 2008.

EVERY HOME WAS A GIANT ATM MACHINE

They rode an appreciation wave, continually pulling cash from their home over a ten-year period.

In 2007, economist David Rosenberg was persona non grata (aka pretty much hated) at Merrill Lynch because he was calling for a bad recession – killing his sales team’s efforts to unload stocks and mortgage-backed securities.

In 2008, however, after the U.S. was slammed with the worst recession ever, Mr. Rosenberg was a hero – getting more airtime than anyone.

Mr. Rosenberg was recently on this Thoughtful Money podcast: David Rosenberg: Bad Data & Bad Policy Will Force Fed To Scramble To Cut Rates, telling the above story and explaining why he is again predicting a bad recession.

And, his track record gives him a lot of credibility.

In the early 2000s, the economy was artificially inflated by the continual pulling of cash from homes, while in recent years our economy was artificially inflated by a level of government spending we have never before seen in peacetime.

TLDR: Stimulus spending, whether from cash-out refinances or from government spending, can’t propel an economy forever – particularly when the spending is from borrowed money.

10 REASONS WHY WE’RE IN FOR A CRASH!

Employment Situation. Both David Rosenberg and Danielle DiMartino Booth constantly point out how the government’s employment data is ridiculously and obviously flawed. In the podcast I link to above, Rosenberg mentions that much broader and more accurate employment surveys indicate that layoffs and job losses are much more prevalent than the government would like us to believe.
Buy Now; Pay Later. Consumers are employing “buy now; pay later” plans at levels never before seen in our economy – many consumers are starting to miss pay later payments. While this is partly a function of the many new applications that offer this service, it is also a very strong indication of stress among lower-tier consumers, as this Bloomberg article explains – Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track. What makes this particularly worrisome is that this debt can’t be accurately measured – so the problem could be much worse than anyone recognizes.
Surging Credit Card Debt. We’re seeing credit borrowing and defaults hit levels we have not seen since 2008, as Delinquencies Spike to 2008 Levels. This credit card borrowing is also what has helped keep our economy afloat in recent years.
Plummeting Savings Levels. Economist Lacy Hunt points out in this Thoughtful Money podcast how declining savings rates always portend recessions, and America’s savings rates have been declining faster than ever.
10 Year/3 Month Yield Curve Inversion. The 3 Month T-Bill yield has been higher than the 10 Month Treasury Yield for over 500 days – a near-record amount of time not seen since 1929 and 2008 (momentous years to say the least). This particular inversion always predicts recessions too – so this time is probably NOT different.
M2 Money Supply Shrinking. Famed economist Stephen Hanke points out how we’re seeing a record decrease in M2 money supply levels, not seen since the Great Depression. And this too always portends recessions. Steve Hanke: Shrinking Money Supply = Recession And Sub-2% Inflation By End Of Year.
Commercial Real Estate Crisis. Commercial landlords are getting whacked in two ways: (1) work from home and the exodus from cities is leaving buildings empty or vastly under-occupied; and (2) higher interest rates are forcing landlords to refinance short-term debt into new debt with much higher payments – in the face of lost rents. This crisis is only surfacing, as illuminated in this video: Trump Is Getting CRUSHED By Commercial Real Estate Bust.
Crashing Japanese Yen. I frequently reference potential “currency crises” as threats to the world economy, and most people don’t realize how serious they are. Former Hedge Fund Manager, Hugh Hendry, does, however, and he explains as much in this Odd Lots podcast: Hugh Hendry on the “Terrifying” Yen Move, and Risk of “Mad Max” Deflation | Odd Lots. TLDR: Japan’s Yen continues to weaken despite massive government intervention, and it could easily bring Japan to its knees if it cannot afford to import oil and other necessary items.
Stimulus Running Out. Much of the stimulus to consumers and businesses that surged during COVID is running out.
Banking Crisis: Billionaire Real Estate Investor Predicts “Weekly Bank Failures”. Banks are the lifeblood of our economy – quite literally. And the problems above are threatening much of our banking system.

BONUS PROBLEM: Warren Buffett Is Bearish! Warren Buffett Is Now “The Bearish He’s Ever Been” (Here’s Why). Mr. Buffett tends to be very optimistic about the American economy in general, so when he’s bearish – it’s time to be concerned.

In Conclusion: There is no way we’re going to avoid a bad recession; things are worse than we’re being led to believe; and this time is not different - it’s just a matter of how long the Fed and our government can postpone the inevitable. I know I beat this dead horse often, but I haven’t beaten it for a few weeks and there is so much data surfacing on social media right now that I thought it was high time for another beating.

- Jay Voorhees NMLS 310167
Founder/Broker | JVM Lending

📞 (925) 360-3305

Rates Hold

Rates are holding.

FHA² Loan: 3.5% Down, 680 Credit Score, No Points

6.250%¹ (APR = 7.133%)

$1,000,000 Purchase | SFR | NO POINTS | 30-Year Fixed-Rate

First-Time Homebuyer Special 🌟: 5% Down, 680 Credit, No Points, Condo or SFR

6.875%³ (APR = 6.926%)

$750,000 Purchase | Condo | NO POINTS | 30-Year Fixed-Rate

Check Today's Rates

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(1) The above rate quote has the following assumptions: $1,000,000 purchase; $981,887 loan amount; 3.5% down payment; 680 FICO credit score; property is SFR; borrower has sufficient income and assets to qualify; Tax and insurance impounds required; Estimated closing costs affecting the APR include all standard fees. Monthly payment without taxes and insurance is $6,045. Rate and Annual Percentage Rate shown as of 5/9/2024, subject to change.

(2) The above rate quote is for FHA loans only. Conforming loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac often have much higher interest rates.

(3) The above rate quote has the following assumptions: $750,000 purchase; $712,500 loan amount; 5% down payment; 680 FICO credit score; property is a condo; borrower has 100% to 120% of Area Median Income (AMI).and assets to qualify. Estimated closing costs affecting the APR include all standard fees. Available to first-time homebuyers. Monthly payment without taxes and insurance is $4,680. Rate and Annual Percentage Rate shown as of 5/9/2024, subject to change.

No guarantee of accuracy is expressed or implied. Programs shown may not include all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products may not be available in all states and restrictions may apply.

              
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<h1 style="margin:0; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:20px; line-height:125%">10 Reasons Why The Economy Will Crash; 2007 vs. 2024? 2024 Is WORSE</h1>
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<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-weight:bold">In the late 1990s, I helped a young couple buy a home in San Ramon, CA for $330,000.</p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-weight:bold"> </p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-weight:bold">By 2007, that couple owed over $800,000 against that same house – and THAT is why we did not see a recession until 2008.</p>
</div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:5px 20px 10px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17145771669391" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17145771669391_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-size:18px; line-height:125%; font-weight:bold"><span style="color: #24acbe;">EVERY HOME WAS A GIANT ATM MACHINE</span></p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:5px 20px 10px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17133772500562" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17133772500562_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text">
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%">They rode an appreciation wave, continually pulling cash from their home over a ten-year period.</p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%"> </p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-weight:bold">In 2007, economist David Rosenberg was persona non grata (aka pretty much hated) at Merrill Lynch because he was calling for a bad recession – killing his sales team’s efforts to unload stocks and mortgage-backed securities.</p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%"> </p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%">In 2008, however, after the U.S. was slammed with the worst recession ever, Mr. Rosenberg was a hero – getting more airtime than anyone.</p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%"> </p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-weight:bold">Mr. Rosenberg was recently on this Thoughtful Money podcast: <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3qgyTW7lCdLW6lZ3q3W2zrYm11BDZ4NW2SS4jV12f7sPW83DFhP75PtbTW85qm0w4WS3RhV3G2VZ59yWTmW7SB3413-7n0hW8CNMJl3G-6TLW8Cfkf23HbZ6rW5_x66S5Yv_7WW981CKD7sB1DpW2jy18R3yX4y5W4--RfX6TQ8F-N6YCK_Jt-hB6W9615NR5XZsG9VQLdBg8WqvdrVYbBX212MgPPW7n4lxy94ZSZ5W5FTrgS6VrHYLN3C7WJTW7lwMW93LGpb8tf0xMW2WVqBf4JVnDqW1-dL841nj_XWW7bMzm07pprR3W1q8WjN11-ZBXf89_ss804" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe; font-weight:bold" rel="noopener" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">David Rosenberg: Bad Data &amp; Bad Policy Will Force Fed To Scramble To Cut Rates</a>, telling the above story and explaining why he is again predicting a bad recession.</p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%"> </p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%">And, his track record gives him a lot of credibility.</p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%"> </p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%">In the early 2000s, the economy was artificially inflated by the continual pulling of cash from homes, while in recent years our economy was artificially inflated by a level of government spending we have never before seen in peacetime.</p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%"> </p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-weight:bold">TLDR: Stimulus spending, whether from cash-out refinances or from government spending, can’t propel an economy forever – particularly when the spending is from borrowed money.</p>
</div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:5px 20px 10px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17144120685041" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17144120685041_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-size:18px; line-height:125%; font-weight:bold"><span style="color: #24acbe;">10 REASONS WHY WE’RE IN FOR A CRASH!</span></p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:5px 20px 10px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17144120711392" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17144120711392_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text">
<ol style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%">
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>Employment Situation.</strong> Both <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzTY3qgyTW6N1vHY6lZ3ntW15JMlp3svwF-N4NQtv1ll9QRW7Yvl6h4lcp5DW2_fTqX5M4xTmW8rkJT096SdSnW4l_jbK5HfndCW2P70nS3HsHWzVD0klb4kdCPmW7q0HQD3Q0--8W267WKW6ptGxKW3NKLNk1TY2V3N1xwy0KPxrYKW1BFQlB3hGYBCW3Qv9Dt8QSWb8W5-LVNt2Pw1c3W87XSqJ7Ct3XKW8DK0NQ47RRv_W1ZnMpm2qXgGBW87gW8N1r13WHW59K_3Q8zLQ34W75jVJc2HGT8_VnrJm57g-23_f3Flkzs04" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">David Rosenberg</a> and <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzTY3qgyTW6N1vHY6lZ3n8V3lDgX3sChSxW8qcQqL7-qrsRW96J-s78dsH8mW6-HsQZ2rn1WSW3FhGkm6MCTmCN3pwD27B95FDW2X-Nq67C3T-MW6CHQ0w2tbmT6VD1HP199d5jvW2fmSRx45tmb-N198MwJlxd_NW6rJssP3k8ZPBV1gzwl1VBrgjW97w4b-78YC62W8sdS3D6py0bhW1ZRngp3jt0wNW62sJ9l5vCyCCW5XpW-k4KZTRFW6hlNQ437k5GDW8882jT8Xg-wPW7Wmrmj5J54PZW1jbPsL8X0RQQf43Kvk204" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">Danielle DiMartino Booth</a>  constantly point out how the government’s employment data is ridiculously and obviously flawed. In the podcast I link to above, Rosenberg mentions that much broader and more accurate employment surveys indicate that layoffs and job losses are much more prevalent than the government would like us to believe.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>Buy Now; Pay Later. </strong>Consumers are employing “buy now; pay later” plans at levels never before seen in our economy – many consumers are starting to miss pay later payments. While this is partly a function of the many new applications that offer this service, it is also a very strong indication of stress among lower-tier consumers, as this Bloomberg article explains –<a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzTl5nR32W5BWr2F6lZ3p9W7r1Y1W8m5FqMW4jhj0z5kWnnXW2Lj5v31f99F9W5VzZRc8ynlnZV-_39d5_Cmr8MGSYfgPPvK_W1MBWSk1X7RN0W1QcQZ94mKhK8VYfbCC4T3ChgW7KTgG64jNbWMW2GVCR46l9z_ZW9b27Cl25Xyk1W2n5cXx8KhxF4W39R_Hb9hmJSHW2W_RGp3pVvYtN7lGg1PyjVTzN1mL4NVYGdw3W3dCfmL1DJsWWW8rFYDP70dQQFW4gKMqG14g1ZFW8ddfCm7vrbxVN8vS9jNdbzdKW6sLXD77BDrcMW5qd9dq1JSJF9V_fb796zGQltW7VzyyW1yTM5pW8S7Jc35j3W8MW69h-0v2CgsHQW4bJlfC7Mm4LSW7nrdfT4Dv7fNW8Qvc5p2J_cc4W2w_t2n6whntHW7rrl8M33RPfsM1Y08rdphj6f7yHzzH04" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank"> Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track</a>. What makes this particularly worrisome is that this debt can’t be accurately measured – so the problem could be much worse than anyone recognizes.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>Surging Credit Card Debt.</strong> We’re seeing credit borrowing and defaults hit levels we have not seen since 2008, as <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3qgyTW7lCdLW6lZ3nBW5nVMbZ45czdWW3070Nc64-MLFVWDkVn2_czmvV4G0zL30_46LW7Zr2sg4x5vw0W4dC-J34nGMxPW2V7B2r4zFmJpW3y5wLT8r0-CYW44wV_P7j40CkW4kMHWk2Qq2pYW5xkPv93SW39rW8CG2Hn697YS7W2z5lCv7plGgWW3r8cC85WfRcTVjqyDL15QscyW64-rVf28k0ZlW63gJ9m4CLDG4W8dsSN93qQG03W2NGFNB2WXLffW7r1_MD4ZmkPRW82P3514W3WWlW6cXwkp6PwR-yW7tVFsd93_wdnW5Yq8xx6Gz0tff5ZyvxM04" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">Delinquencies Spike to 2008 Levels</a>. This credit card borrowing is also what has helped keep our economy afloat in recent years.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>Plummeting Savings Levels.</strong> Economist Lacy Hunt points out in <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3qgyTW7lCdLW6lZ3lKW7XF9T51Xjn-9W4wD_Ld1Rh4XnW4-FJ5B4nD1jdW4G5qxq2-MHRMW5CX-Jp81sgkJW6MzxNZ4Jyfj2W2zwkNY4TCvcPW8MXQcf3RzrQVW5zBYz24L5YByW3J8Z9T7lqWd_W1fXXBC6Xp44bW8K7tP838jfcrN83nQkwPGCXzW3BxHCJ4DH0s0W8HnRlC5NP88pN57Hbx-wNxs_W2G33ZS1ZnZwmW1kX1BF570BLDW5gVtLz3558hQW22k8tv2XpXsRW8CnjF96jLV1BW4N44k45r10rYN2Lv9qnSVlC2W65qZ2N24RZcGf2_X22H04" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">this Thoughtful Money podcast</a> how declining savings rates always portend recessions, and America’s savings rates have been declining faster than ever.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>10 Year/3 Month Yield Curve Inversion.</strong> The 3 Month T-Bill yield has been higher than the 10 Month Treasury Yield for over 500 days – a near-record amount of time not seen since 1929 and 2008 (momentous years to say the least). This particular inversion always predicts recessions too – so this time is probably NOT different.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>M2 Money Supply Shrinking.</strong> Famed economist Stephen Hanke points out how we’re seeing a record decrease in M2 money supply levels, not seen since the Great Depression. And this too always portends recessions. <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3qgyTW7lCdLW6lZ3kyW44mF8X7BLZwmVrbYJz23JnS4Vn468b69wxfYW4hk7Jw45RzDJN334bWrP7_kTW3Y1FGX5Sw1r4W56p60-4cK19sN68GGCFlz082W4M7nGV6xYQRlW6Pn5b02fbYChN31sfTmZJyt4W47WRxY20lHLvW9frKnW1wx7PhW5JNwfK7Tpg3ZW6wm2Ry2Kx3ltW86h2X-8llST3W8sQl4d26r6NcN598G5N30gGHW3-7gSg1mlPY3W8l0-rV1M99W1W9hktZH1zsLKHW7q6LCn5bQJ45W7C5M193V9smwW5n4h0w2dqy_3f2SShnH04" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">Steve Hanke: Shrinking Money Supply = Recession And Sub-2% Inflation By End Of Year</a>.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Commercial Real Estate Crisis. </span>Commercial landlords are getting whacked in two ways: (1) work from home and the exodus from cities is leaving buildings empty or vastly under-occupied; and (2) higher interest rates are forcing landlords to refinance short-term debt into new debt with much higher payments – in the face of lost rents. This crisis is only surfacing, as illuminated in this video: <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3qgyTW7lCdLW6lZ3mQW4y4vgM68rfN_W2LX7-31q3YwPW68NFLr52VrlRW4lshmy8SZFWsW3xWWD075Dw_kW8xsGK0832GyZW9cNr8l5kXP0gW3Qvh7d8Z9csRW1XBM_l8rGB0WW3sxMbd94P1fZN4D8-g__f4h8W6lpcLP5LK6WWW5hwfr_1cPyqwVGnPjK3X_FGpW6NqMCN4JzsMdN35wy42_QdlRW4TkjpJ5rKWBxW3qD2BL2gpHydW4ZDQst3y9t-JW4SVh_98GB1QJN8PdnCHjrJCRW8kByxl7llv8QW2JTThj6_cBLMW81Dr5B6tWMjdf8pNv8004" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">Trump Is Getting CRUSHED By Commercial Real Estate Bust</a>.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>Crashing Japanese Yen.</strong> I frequently reference potential “currency crises” as threats to the world economy, and most people don’t realize how serious they are. Former Hedge Fund Manager, Hugh Hendry, does, however, and he explains as much in this Odd Lots podcast: <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVR3qgyTW8wLKSR6lZ3nGW2THxZ-3hJKnDW7C4hRk5JF6HrW8vpzYW7CQRDXW2Y7Yl917WP4lW1kK7R64fmmRlN4P7Y79bszLKW5nHqS_4v12P4W1Sdnmj3qYKk8W5PBqWn3yCY8-W4S0Flr464ZFmW5xpVrW5hT--kMhb8bG5bJtwW1zJX7n4hFGVMVvCjzz1pKCy7W5SzZs03Kf-BBW1PVpRs1cl9jGW5nFg667jJdLrVYtPGh5kPPMXW1kgHsm7VS5dRW2LxB6C6xB-xgVDQQGG3ZQVgQW8J79Gt5PsgMmW1tz4Kk2mM3S9W4P1j_j6mw0yJVd89GZ3sj0B-W5Qv_cD5hVJ4WW78Jrt25chMnZVrwt0j6mPHs2f14kcR-04" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">Hugh Hendry on the “Terrifying” Yen Move, and Risk of “Mad Max” Deflation | Odd Lots</a>. TLDR: Japan’s Yen continues to weaken despite massive government intervention, and it could easily bring Japan to its knees if it cannot afford to import oil and other necessary items.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>Stimulus Running Out</strong>. Much of the stimulus to consumers and businesses that surged during COVID is running out.<br><br>
</li>
<li style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
<strong>Banking Crisis:</strong> <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3qgyTW7lCdLW6lZ3lhW2bVsnH57VqYLW8xy5wh3DK34vW3rlfmK2t6zL9W858HG35FmknRN1MPlSN-x0F9W6K-wQf2PVFGpW11sRfh6MhlrPVHM08Q6YyclJW29G25M1Qdk78N56Hg3rrScwNW5JkrXS37ZLFpW2nFMmQ4ZHTZKW2TWxmS7BY-qXW4mYc-L539xyNW2K4yS03CG68lW8b5_2b5lRCn8W2PJWmS3fyRF_W7wGwP_76z3S0W1vYVkL8-TqB6W7KWQkV11dFbhW6zVtDq4Y79RDVg41Pw5NtdR4W7ZrSsb4CBdnYW5zNl_T9cR7NPdZDRGK04" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">Billionaire Real Estate Investor Predicts “Weekly Bank Failures”</a>. Banks are the lifeblood of our economy – quite literally. And the problems above are threatening much of our banking system.</li>
</ol>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%"><span style="font-weight: bold;">BONUS PROBLEM</span>: Warren Buffett Is Bearish! <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3qgyTW7lCdLW6lZ3lqVk59L097kjB3V9xSWH6MsPyWW1PC_f61zW47pW7FxBpl6r_XXJW96V7Qt71MyP6N1PYWQ6kR343W1p_cFc8TQGg5W8Zkdrg89ZNQPW3WWPLC3hd569W4-SdxC9fXQ5WW5CDt651kH62FV_PYqn1XRfQRVHSx3d6k29L_W74GRZ08kFX39W5pd2Tl1tMgwfW8XNB4X8twRcDW77wm4215jwNRW5jhTMH4jq3kRN4rRnJ8w5-9xW6QMgX96FphJsW58dqP_7Ycqg5W8cqx2r8H3c25W2GKqfc3HB2NWW8nvZ_v3KmvFKf5Q8L2804" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">Warren Buffett Is Now “The Bearish He’s Ever Been” (Here’s Why)</a>. Mr. Buffett tends to be very optimistic about the American economy in general, so when he’s bearish – it’s time to be concerned.</p>
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<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:5px 20px 10px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17146752716712" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module_17146752716712_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px;">In Conclusion: There is no way we’re going to avoid a bad recession; things are worse than we’re being led to believe; and this time is not different</span> - it’s just a matter of how long the Fed and our government can postpone the inevitable. I know I beat this dead horse often, but I haven’t beaten it for a few weeks and there is so much data surfacing on social media right now that I thought it was high time for another beating.</p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
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<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:150%"><span style="font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold;">- Jay Voorhees  <span style="font-size: 12px;"><em><span style="font-weight: normal;">NMLS 310167</span></em></span></span><br><span style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal;">Founder/Broker | JVM Lending</span></p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:150%"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: normal;">📞 <a href="tel:9253603305" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank">(925) 360-3305</a></span></p>
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  <table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:10px 20px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-3-0-0" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-3-0-0_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><h2 style="margin:0; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-size:22px"><span style="color: #ffffff;">Rates Hold</span></h2></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
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  <table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:10px 20px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-4-0-0" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-4-0-0_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-weight:normal">Rates are holding. </p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:15px 20px 0px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-4-0-1" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-4-0-1_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-size:16px"><span style="font-weight: bold;">FHA² Loan: 3.5% Down, 680 Credit Score, No Points</span></p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:15px 20px 0px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-4-0-2" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-4-0-2_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:115%; font-size:24px"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: #2d8692;">6.250%¹ </span><span style="color: #2d8692; font-weight: normal; font-size: 16px;">(APR = 7.133%)</span></p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:5px 20px 15px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-4-0-3" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-4-0-3_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%">$1,000,000 Purchase | SFR | NO POINTS | 30-Year Fixed-Rate</p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
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  <table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:15px 20px 0px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-5-0-0" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-5-0-0_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%; font-size:16px"><span style="font-weight: bold;">First-Time Homebuyer Special 🌟: 5% Down, 680 Credit, No Points, Condo or SFR</span></p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:15px 20px 0px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-5-0-1" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-5-0-1_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:115%; font-size:24px"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: #2d8692;">6.875%³ </span><span style="color: #2d8692; font-weight: normal; font-size: 16px;">(APR = 6.926%)</span></p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-spacing:0 !important; border-collapse:collapse; mso-table-lspace:0pt; mso-table-rspace:0pt"><tbody><tr><td class="hs_padded" style="border-collapse:collapse; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size:14px; color:#0b2529; word-break:break-word; padding:5px 20px 15px"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-5-0-2" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="module"><div id="hs_cos_wrapper_module-5-0-2_" class="hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text" style="color: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;" data-hs-cos-general-type="widget" data-hs-cos-type="rich_text"><p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:125%">$750,000 Purchase | Condo | NO POINTS | 30-Year Fixed-Rate</p></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
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        <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVx3qgyTW7Y8-PT6lZ3mYW717b7K93vSzWW2TFgBp6bmbhwM9pwBrpBJW5MmLsNFK0QwRW53J84D2Qz_RCW13JwFp2pgk02W1f7TGV6rJ9lKW2pXDk92pppk5W3XK2BZ27wC3JW50KzjJ8Vb5wJVJjBg52zZhRCW1s4G4H4PRmgHW7tf9w93t0dDQW5_Lh_x6y-CYyW2gh-Vw32GXKnN3XjZJ9RBnW2W6MDMS-5cRzn1W1hPBDm6v-73mW2JS4vs3Z1m84W6jXsV4315_rRW76MCqK3h9YlKW9fNfck6zJNL4W4SQ1MS5x4j4yW8_zkx81n8Q3SVTCbRt2vzKdYVxLLf65Vxgryf3kbWQg04" target="_blank" style="color:#00a4bd; mso-line-height-rule:exactly; font-size:18px; font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; Margin:0; text-transform:none; text-decoration:none; padding:12px 18px; display:block" data-hs-link-id="0">
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<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; line-height:125%; font-size:16px" align="center">Like what you've read? <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzW63qgyTW95jsWP6lZ3pqW75g2Bl6NRNq7W48Lwlj2f9hRYW5Y3JVM1rtj3vVysR_L1FQCW5W8XycQ96LQgxYW4_SYT71c0VHTW5-xlV87lgqc6W470BFp1mCwlyW1RxGQc3S8FFgN4dNrknKnbVnW1YFQ_F69ZP-BN2BNCy_stqQ9W34TYf_5917DvW3gFMB-4nRC_0W1tn6VD3SnXd5VgV9HM5PBrRmW5xmlbT58ntRwV4RmV53lCQNlW4pFPgh1qZj1NW7sTsD68BkLqKW7KGSW74TZyr4W6DD38860ZQM9W4CXBHd13xtwzW1JyQ4d5dymcyN8_3z55vzZ6NW37dxfz93gSjYVnFnD-2R0npGN5lFvvNYTkl-W1G4pPL6YXQYYW86WgZ17N9-12f5nwHyP04" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe; font-weight:bold" rel="noopener" data-hs-link-id="0" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #24acbe;">Share this blog</span></span></a> with your network!</p>
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<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; text-align:center; line-height:125%; font-size:16px" align="center">See all past JVM blogs <a href="https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzTY3qgyTW6N1vHY6lZ3n8W8kYwJB3bj5YpW1gHVRv7PryZKVKHF3_4FHhf9W5r9G-b3xs7TWW5pkpsm1RmZ3cMSMFdYXh2ZnW4ZdD7z5sQFldW4SnV7k61rncfW7tnSVc7Q4NsrW5VTRZn3xkxGYW6b1-Kg3D_FgpW5NP15h7VZZ9TW5GzCtH3Qkb7QW8dNX3z3XjDkNW4mPBzt7x7k7ZW4YBYCV1Mh6NsW68DF1v1k45GYVykj9n6tKh3YW6f12KH3ZM5cPW6g2-Zs41K0PjW8ySqwF1q_mk_W4SH37t1pKYCnf32f44C04" rel="noopener" style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; color:#24acbe" data-hs-link-id="1" target="_blank"><span style="color: #24acbe;">here</span></a>.</p>
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<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:100%"><span style="font-size: 10px;">(1) The above rate quote has the following assumptions: $1,000,000 purchase; $981,887 loan amount; 3.5% down payment; 680 FICO credit score; property is SFR; borrower has sufficient income and assets to qualify; Tax and insurance impounds required; Estimated closing costs affecting the APR include all standard fees. Monthly payment without taxes and insurance is $6,045. Rate and Annual Percentage Rate shown as of 5/9/2024, subject to change.</span></p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:100%"><span style="font-size: 10px;"><br>(2) The above rate quote is for FHA loans only. Conforming loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac often have much higher interest rates.<br></span></p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:100%"> </p>
<p style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly; line-height:100%"><span style="font-size: 10px;">(3) The above rate quote has the following assumptions: $750,000 purchase; $712,500 loan amount; 5% down payment; 680 FICO credit score; property is a condo; borrower has 100% to 120% of Area Median Income (AMI).and assets to qualify. Estimated closing costs affecting the APR include all standard fees. Available to first-time homebuyers. Monthly payment without taxes and insurance is $4,680. Rate and Annual Percentage Rate shown as of 5/9/2024, subject to change.</span></p>
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There is no way we’re going to avoid a bad recession; things are worse than we’re being led to believe; and this time is not different

jvms-daily-blog-header (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzTY3prCCW6N1vHY6lZ3pBW5kp3dP5vHH4RW2j9m5C8mfXqTW4mzmM16xf2qqW78g96P3SRj9yW7xd1Zh6sQGBWW88bbSz8bLZdVW1RL6fs81SmpDW5jKld684kL2pW2R_M6-9jJkyBW4ChMVK1TWvJzW2_1Std1gStbsW7dnRrN7MC9N3W63zSYD5BlcWSW3j7J0F2h1nZ2W9dGpx56fhYJqW15sf8Z5Fw-4_W3nbs5P6PJwQ2W34k18q7fWHTxW1CBgWD8XqYn1W8gctnS5kgTrkW98yvCx3cg0PVW8Hv8m06Lybmcf1w0QW404 )

10 Reasons Why The Economy Will Crash; 2007 vs. 2024? 2024 Is WORSE

In the late 1990s, I helped a young couple buy a home in San Ramon, CA for $330,000.

By 2007, that couple owed over $800,000 against that same house – and THAT is why we did not see a recession until 2008.

EVERY HOME WAS A GIANT ATM MACHINE

They rode an appreciation wave, continually pulling cash from their home over a ten-year period.

In 2008, however, after the U.S. was slammed with the worst recession ever, Mr. Rosenberg was a hero – getting more airtime than anyone.

Mr. Rosenberg was recently on this Thoughtful Money podcast: David Rosenberg: Bad Data & Bad Policy Will Force Fed To Scramble To Cut Rates (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3prCCW7lCdLW6lZ3ljW7TQtsS1vzKtYW4hskp43XYXZzVSrXf-6Q3qK8W4kpDd582XbjYW5mx4gJ2yH4NnN7tfVnRcj72tW4GMmV56Vj_VkW4v1Z6v7MV4WyW6bH7c96gV6pYN27GNKcGyrcSW299JH14qKWR0W3_lT1V7HfwxgW2PygYL5f1vF0W7FC6j01BTYH8N47Vhlhkw-ygW446knW2wt40jW33bkrF1yH3lrW949zNr7Kd8X3W43T6Z737Dm98W5_Pt4b72RV9mW4q0X3j6T4kYxN6_fhmFz-KQtN40pt6Yq-5qJW2B6zJ16Q8Rz3f4KRk1K04 ) , telling the above story and explaining why he is again predicting a bad recession.

And, his track record gives him a lot of credibility.

TLDR: Stimulus spending, whether from cash-out refinances or from government spending, can’t propel an economy forever – particularly when the spending is from borrowed money.

10 REASONS WHY WE’RE IN FOR A CRASH!

- Employment Situation. Both David Rosenberg (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzTY3prCCW6N1vHY6lZ3kHV7rNpb94qHM8W95q70g98JrVGW2-R2kg1NtfZgW1K_RmS6ZDymFN63RWKkGnlV6W8L49Xj61ljphW6LnnxV1kJ39bW5pXcRF78QxV2W7dcvhN1W3XX5W7VCkjj1Dt-WsW2hrH_54ryFCFW6TQT464yf07mW9dGvkl4HWW-pN5SxRyHL4TmnW6F0KXs6x9Fc-W6VT72-1QjLDKW4K-F1H2-5_8ZW5DNHfj5kSxSQW1q_PHF7N1S4JW677XBQ6wG6xKW3kDLlg7WJrckW2TQvHN4hQTl6f4nhgcg04 ) and Danielle DiMartino Booth (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzTY3prCCW6N1vHY6lZ3m8W3xr0Rc2zcxSJW2HMLxT7KCgwSW1H8DcD2KjjRKW5Hj9gh39ZmYMN5N9TrB84ly7W4k_KkD7hbwMqW5pp7Fk7d5cYfW67fYLb4gBXpyW10nghX2Pt97TW34Wvl_1WtzqmW4kR6Vz2BX4L5W4q09Mk7K0_MBVtXrPj1r3TC_W3wkYZ46xLySWW24rLkB1Bd3t8W6NDLGK1dWrxDW3hLxp28bYglRW8gwSX17zP9-ZW2mjWy93Bt8Q-W19G3245mVb6jW6thq-B1V7bt2W4hmdks6WCD4Xf6xhn8s04 ) constantly point out how the government’s employment data is ridiculously and obviously flawed. In the podcast I link to above, Rosenberg mentions that much broader and more accurate employment surveys indicate that layoffs and job losses are much more prevalent than the government would like us to believe.

- Buy Now; Pay Later. Consumers are employing “buy now; pay later” plans at levels never before seen in our economy – many consumers are starting to miss pay later payments. While this is partly a function of the many new applications that offer this service, it is also a very strong indication of stress among lower-tier consumers, as this Bloomberg article explains – Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzTl5m_5PW5BWr2F6lZ3p9N2GtQ-Hb-zScW4WN4dy8KBSWYW2ZY56T2F1hB0V9qN8n1r89gyW4CY4mL11v4ZVVHFD9-5fntKKW70lghN4jQtZSW6qn-bX92lvsbW2HsSwc22yVxsW5458yf3nRC0DVywqmH8BzXhKVj9SHZ3hRsYbN8sNnLT6zDk2W6wx9s03knlQQW3mVJzW8rW96kW8Hx6w58h4vDTW2zhWLZ1kkxtlN1zW8YKqmCdjN3YynSlBsGN3W2ksfpv8HmYgjW3RYK3C2lL0XPW3hkmqz3C85zvM9YT_s5r3f3W3Y2xHL8PgsXMW82w3HP6D_KF_W79PS0J5TYJj4W2FL3X78S0lX2N6T5WCm8RJPvW5r2yCn1WL-g7W903qPX8zkLWLW8NDSSf42spq-W8QpF9R6WXdjZW2SZk_p2G1zt9W6lQpF-7rl8SPf6QPdRM04 ) . What makes this particularly worrisome is that this debt can’t be accurately measured – so the problem could be much worse than anyone recognizes.

- Surging Credit Card Debt. We’re seeing credit borrowing and defaults hit levels we have not seen since 2008, as Delinquencies Spike to 2008 Levels (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3prCCW7lCdLW6lZ3mdW4PYBys748Y-WW8bqPYZ6VpSC0VvF3Wv7ytXzKW7VmLgz4pFZR4W604S_f2s6rH9W3SYJRn1_372wN68_XNFJ2grPW3bmc_F48cXmjW8R7Wtg7cCKZmW5ZbT3195lxsyN44zP_1y_18gW7FKgdm3RBXNDW8fHVZC4yv-k2W3Cv_P54VjYVTN20KnZWQsQF7VPH-LB93yBc8W63dWJl3wL4tlW14kbG2434QV8N1kdyKLHTwzsW6Q2cr-2VFfXPN8KXrpTWv2MsW1QH3527X0DKyW6VghSh7q78GRN6t_xLgx0ZbGdZsdCC04 ) . This credit card borrowing is also what has helped keep our economy afloat in recent years.

- Plummeting Savings Levels. Economist Lacy Hunt points out in this Thoughtful Money podcast (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3prCCW7lCdLW6lZ3p3W6zrQCf1mdP5SW744kwz7Q8tWPW1pNb6h2tRlfdW4gQqpN8sk0G6W2j5m7S72v7FLVvJ6rv3mgfFMW9b5cp86b7NPFW33QXgC1SpDTJW15TdMJ8zcbVtVxqYrV7Xjx_yW3KR_Kj6v27vmW4pQs6n5XyhGbV6fsvF6chWf7W8PCkff2pHqckW8r79fw8jp7xgMCrbC36MYtrW2-0nfm4LfG6mN32zr_h1S65fW3_JKzS5Vv4Q8W36v3VY10CMh9W14Ht5t8B8vQTW4tBJsV8DxX_nW7czZs-8JRT5LW6zJFK431C0V3f8KDQNq04 ) how declining savings rates always portend recessions, and America’s savings rates have been declining faster than ever.

- 10 Year/3 Month Yield Curve Inversion. The 3 Month T-Bill yield has been higher than the 10 Month Treasury Yield for over 500 days – a near-record amount of time not seen since 1929 and 2008 (momentous years to say the least). This particular inversion always predicts recessions too – so this time is probably NOT different.

- M2 Money Supply Shrinking. Famed economist Stephen Hanke points out how we’re seeing a record decrease in M2 money supply levels, not seen since the Great Depression. And this too always portends recessions. Steve Hanke: Shrinking Money Supply = Recession And Sub-2% Inflation By End Of Year (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3prCCW7lCdLW6lZ3llVM-r-f8jz9S9W5mfF_c445vtyW1CNQ1P4PJgy5W5hNWyQ4qzc1NW8NK4y64Wb4sGW4BcSfm1c-7ZtN3yGNSSCg7MVW12XtKv6fS3-nW78jfFH6GnwXtW9jW66k8r1xQnW88c7Yh1QnShYW2nykbv4Slp35W2Gvx0V6fn0_TN2q5CZVZBkR2W4MRsSF7cSC24W26f5Wq2VjptrVjQ2Qs9fCyrPW5x7FPF3YqRgyW58_0dL8Q-4dFW6pJSYm2tSq2cW6Y5MYP90F0xyN4z4WKBdyj5dW1s5l3L6lVkW-W3MfNXz3_McDtf6-6W_204 ) .

- Commercial Real Estate Crisis. Commercial landlords are getting whacked in two ways: (1) work from home and the exodus from cities is leaving buildings empty or vastly under-occupied; and (2) higher interest rates are forcing landlords to refinance short-term debt into new debt with much higher payments – in the face of lost rents. This crisis is only surfacing, as illuminated in this video: Trump Is Getting CRUSHED By Commercial Real Estate Bust (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3prCCW7lCdLW6lZ3ncVf4_kn22NsLBVj9F7m1RNydpW7QCNYy6w0pzjW1TZ1DZ8cdWhPW6gtnzH3_WR-xW7K9gtg2WX3cMV4rBSn8Ck1-xW4rpB7p5Y_z_DW1Xr0Js1b35YcW2Csv9F3Y0RTlW1SLFK84jK3p1W6YDKG8227CXGW8GrzzN4Vx9mXW5ltxq18R8ssXW8n7vNh8LKHvFW4H6McM35CwHtVrBp8R132R-tW7Kcbtv7Nfmt8VlNsWw8nBtdqW1jJFwj4y58PSW6j6H0t3RnRhJW6lW6fd5NQ6lwW4jLRjl6xTvntVWxDFy4WpxRwf5h8-0C04 ) .

- Crashing Japanese Yen. I frequently reference potential “currency crises” as threats to the world economy, and most people don’t realize how serious they are. Former Hedge Fund Manager, Hugh Hendry, does, however, and he explains as much in this Odd Lots podcast: Hugh Hendry on the “Terrifying” Yen Move, and Risk of “Mad Max” Deflation | Odd Lots (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVR3prCCW8wLKSR6lZ3pvN9kB2C-lqv84W353jJj4_CV4BW7QYZLD1czBQCW6FgLsh3Q5rJXW4GflLb1wcwTQW2j0Fmq4TDGd6W4gr1HV1xNFSWW7PR-Gd6vsmXfW6dd4jD4hN_jZW8dcKbj4nfz68W65bQr83fWM6NW16nbWb77md9_N6dGBFz12lNfW10h40V5ZxBbbW3G_d0B2Z801-W5tqY--2jZvrpW4j9LcX576w0nN7KzPMb891HDW1kBz3b7jR2BsW15gXq42-GQmwW3mDfLG3nBGd5W3zbJ5s2_SXCRW1QPZzM2PC-2gVLXDfN5BPyV-W5Msd8V8hzRXBW5wKGgl22Bq9cW4Hz4pL3bPH9DW3hc8T14TqsLgf1shyRx04 ) . TLDR: Japan’s Yen continues to weaken despite massive government intervention, and it could easily bring Japan to its knees if it cannot afford to import oil and other necessary items.

- Stimulus Running Out. Much of the stimulus to consumers and businesses that surged during COVID is running out.

- Banking Crisis: Billionaire Real Estate Investor Predicts “Weekly Bank Failures” (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3prCCW7lCdLW6lZ3kLW7FPNdF7lCPCXW3Xl4BG3vxw6bW1vsdJ62Xhd4sW68StGD88kkhXW7CXSqk34s4J9N47FXSQnYcnCN2dkggHBNrc6W2qM_zc981RKGW69Hccz2YP8hcW1R-kqF1jmqTQW7Y1RSR2N6QYVW4-H_c07V1ZbbW8jVvNS24vrX1W914JMH8zmYNqW1_xdX44FGWMJW3FYJ9f11ll5_VHWzqH7Hd-TNVLbpxH21Q8yQW8Q1Yxm4qXMtVW7sFV6T1bt_BfW57H04M6c5WVJW949zbL6k3N_WW24PWc45jfnFQW2jh0MW6ZkRb9f11cbYn04 ) . Banks are the lifeblood of our economy – quite literally. And the problems above are threatening much of our banking system.

BONUS PROBLEM: Warren Buffett Is Bearish! Warren Buffett Is Now “The Bearish He’s Ever Been” (Here’s Why) (https://email.jvmlending.com/e3t/Ctc/DO+113/d2xgQk04/VWR2M799d9qnN3TD0d17bjS1W7Wb0M15dVB7mN61zzVd3prCCW7lCdLW6lZ3q1W7LJNGV5QP1-fW7gRlyc3s8kBkW2mJh989hCDdMW92NtZB10_mZvMVkpbtjKmKNW4y-3q_8KvpqgW4gXv2m2h0ZLHW67nfnM58zfj7N7RjdfDwSlfjN19QQJLxt3RrW3wwBSM5t5TJTW5trTkV2yfB0CW38_FJl1TjQ11W8j8CK77j60h1W8WcW0q5f6GMBW3GgFjv6FktlPW4FxPKL2f5kDcW88Q1Y-53Kb08W7-nwfV8hb3XsN6F9h5KS768cW5c5hV53dgSKWN88LQm0tJkt_N8dSWM_zVn8pW8ybxdy2WRlCTf3lQghq04 ) . Mr. Buffett tends to be very optimistic about the American economy in general, so when he’s bearish – it’s time to be concerned.

- Jay Voorhees NMLS 310167

Founder/Broker | JVM Lending

📞 (925) 360-3305 (tel:9253603305)

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(2) The above rate quote is for FHA loans only. Conforming loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac often have much higher interest rates.

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Subject Line: JVM's Blog: 10 Reasons Why The Economy Will Crash; 2007 vs. 2024? 2024 Is WORSE; Rates Hold
From: Jay Voorhees <[email protected]>
Emails: jvmlending Emails
Send Date: May 9, 2024 03:16 PM
Coupons: jvmlending Coupons
Industry: Business And Consumer Services Real Estate
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